*Gersh predicted that prospects for Democrats in Virginia are quite promising. For starters, there's "no better opportunity than in Virginia" to pick up a U.S. Senate seat. (Gersh noted that, of course, we can't take anything for granted).
*Generally speaking, Gersh sees Virginia as a microcosm of political change in the rest of the country, except "even better" from a Democratic perspective. The big change is in the outer suburbs and exurbs (e.g., Loudoun, Prince William, Henrico), which some people used to think would be solidly Republican, but instead are trending strongly Democratic. In Gersh's view, what's happening is that middle class voters have moved to the outer suburbs or exurbs mainly for housing affordability. As a result, those localities have grown rapidly with a diverse population that is primarily concerned with the quality of schools and life, NOT wedge issues. Combined with the rapidly growing populations in NOVA (the D.C. media market is 1/3 of the state), that adds up to a large margin for Republicans to overcome elsewhere (rural areas are shrinking fast in proportion to the total state population).
*The bottom line is that Virginia is no longer "safe Republican." In fact, Gersh believes that Virginia is the most likely southern state to go Democratic for president in 2008. In terms of congressional races, Gersh sees the 2nd district as competitive, as well as the 11th. Gersh believes Frank Wolf as increasingly vulnerable in the 10th, and that the 5th district (Virgil Goode's) might even be competitive next year.
*On the immigration issue, Gersh believes it will backfire on Republicans in Virginia as it did in California and elsewhere. Gersh points to growth in the Hispanic population and the "mean-spirited tone" of Republicans on this issue. That's a turnoff to most moderate, suburban/exurban voters, in his opinion.
See the flip for the complete report
VirginiaIntroduction: Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency. The increasing population of Northern Virginia (most notably in Fairfax County), and the continued evolution of the suburban and exurban vote toward Democrats (in such places as Loudoun County and Prince William County) have been essential to victories in top-of-the-ticket races in 2005 and 2006. Increased Democratic performance in suburban and exurban areas has been evident all over the country. In 2006, 16 of the 30 Democratic pickups in the House were in districts made up of suburban or exurban areas.
While increased turnout does demonstrate the important of population growth in suburban/exurban areas and demographic shifts throughout the state, recent Democratic victories in Virginia cannot be traced exclusively to winning the "turnout battle." While turnout has been increasingly high in the last two cycles, this increase includes both Republicans and Democrats. The Webb/Allen Senate contest saw an unprecedented increase in turnout for an off-year election. Previous off-year elections saw turnout of between 35 percent and 45 percent, where the 2006 Senate race saw a turnout of nearly 52 percent (51.9). Webb's final margin of victory, however, was much slimmer (less than 0.5 percent), indicating that GOP turnout accounted for a substantial proportion of the increase in overall statewide turnout. While it remains important for Virginia Democrats to stay competitive with an effective GOP turnout operation, Democratic victories can instead be directly attributed to an increased performance in suburban and exurban areas that were solidly Republican in the past. Turnout will again increase in 2008 due to the Presidential contest and former Governor Mark Warner's presence in the Senate race and the presidential election; if current trends hold, Democratic prospects are increasingly positive.
Characteristics of Increased Democratic SuccessPopulation Surge in Northern Virginia: The population of Northern Virginia continues to increase, and the makeup of this increase is largely Democratic. Fairfax County's voting-age population grew by 33,000 people since 2000, and the county has gone from a 50/50 proposition to overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2000, Fairfax County went to George W. Bush with 49% of the vote. By 2006, Fairfax County had undergone a massive shift and as a result, Democrat Jim Webb won nearly 60 (59.5%) of the vote over incumbent George Allen. Other areas such as Arlington County, which was already a Democratic stronghold, have seen similar surges in Democratic voting. From 2000 to 2006, Arlington County's voting-age population grew by 6,000 people, which has increased the Democratic share of the vote. In 2000, Al Gore won 60 percent of Arlington County. In 2005, Tim Kaine received an overwhelming 75 percent, and in 2006 Jim Webb received 73 percent. Northern Virginia continues to expand and remains crucial to Democrats.
Democratic Performance in Suburban and Exurban Areas: More important than the growing population of Northern Virginia, the increase in Democratic performance in suburban and exurban areas has helped Democrats gain electoral victories. Exurban areas constitute the outermost boundaries of any metropolitan area, such as Loudon County. Loudoun represents the fastest-growing county in the country. Between 2000 and 2006, Loudoun's voting-age population increased by 73,000 people. This increase has changed the demographics of the county, bringing more middle class, and well-educated voters who support democratic candidates into the area. In 2000, Al Gore received just 41 percent of the vote in Loudon, but by 2005, Tim Kaine won Loudoun with 53 percent. Democratic gains continued in 2006 when Jim Webb won Loudoun County with 50% of the vote.
Prince William County has also undergone a similar evolution. The county is comprised of primarily metropolitan and suburban areas and the voting-age population has grown by 58,000 since 2000. Previously, Prince William was solidly Republican, voting for the GOP consistently at all levels; Republican performance in top-of-the-ticket races between 1996 and 2004 was at 54.5 percent; however, following the population surge and subsequent demographic shift, the county voted for both Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the last two election cycles. Democratic voting has only grown as demonstrated by the fact that Jim Webb outperformed Tim Kaine, receiving more than 51 percent of the vote in Prince William County.
Implications for 2008
President: Of course all of this information shows that Democrats can win statewide races in Virginia. Though turnout in 2004 was above 70 percent and the state went to President Bush by 8 points, as mentioned above, the population has been growing, and this growth has changed the population demographics in suburban and exurban areas, bringing increased Democratic performance; in 2006, registration across the state was higher than that of 2004 by 38,000 voters. These growing areas contributed greatly to Jim Webb's victory in 2006 over a popular incumbent Republican. Turnout is expected to increase even more in 2008, which should make the state more competitive in the presidential race than it has been in previous cycles. Mark Warner's presence on the ballot is not to be underestimated, as it will further increase Democratic turnout and aid Democratic candidates all over the ballot.Senate: Mark Warner's announced candidacy was the best piece of news that Democrats could have hoped for; with him on the ballot Democrats are considered the favorite in this race. Warner is popular in both suburban and rural areas, which is unusual for a Democrat, and as a result, his presence on the ballot can only benefit other Democrats. Increased Democratic performance in moderate-leaning suburbs is a recipe for success for Warner, whose message often appeals to moderates of both parties. Republicans, on the other hand, appear to be headed for an ideological showdown, if Congressman Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore face off in the primary. Any ideological squabbles among Republicans will only increase support for Warner, who will preach bipartisan efficiency over ideology.
VA02: This district has about a 3 percent marginality going in either direction. Democrat Phil Kellam lost by less than 3 percent (less than 5,000 votes) to incumbent Thelma Drake in the House race in 2006. Jim Webb lost the district by nearly the same margin (5,700 votes) in the Senate race that year. At the same time, in 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine carried the district by 3 percent (4,100 votes) when he won the gubernatorial election. This shows that the district is competitive and that both parties have the potential to win this seat. The key to Tim Kaine's victory was that he outperformed all the aforementioned Democrats in the Virginia Beach area, which is the most populous in the district. Kaine won a slight majority of the vote (50.6%) in Virginia Beach; Phil Kellam fared slightly better than Jim Webb, but he fell well short of Kaine's numbers (47.8%) and losing in the Virginia beach area largely accounts for Kellam's margin of defeat. The district is undergoing changes that may favor democrats; Virginia Beach is undergoing increased development, bringing an influx of potential Democratic voters to suburban and exurban areas of the district.
VA10: While the district has been kind to statewide Democrats for consecutive cycles and is trending Democratic, House challengers can't necessarily rely on coattails. Democratic candidates in top-of-the-ticket races consistently performed in the low-to-mid forties in 2000 and 2004. Al Gore received 41.3% in 2000 and John Kerry 44.2%. However, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have carried this district in successive cycles as the demographics of Fairfax and Loudon County have become more advantageous. Though Kaine and Webb carried the district it hasn't translated into close House races thus far. Incumbent Frank Wolf defeated Judy Feder by 16 percent in 2006 and received more than 57 percent of the vote. While the trends in the county suggest that this should be a close race, Feder comes into the race a heavy underdog.
VA11: The 11th district is already considered competitive, as seven-term incumbent Tom Davis won just 55 percent of the vote against a second-tier candidate in 2006. If Davis decides to challenge Mark Warner for the Senate seat, this seat will become a top target for Democrats in 2008. The 11th district is made up of Fairfax and Prince William Counties, both of which are areas where Democrats perform well. The district has shown strong Democratic leanings at every level over the past three election cycles. John Kerry came within a percentage point of winning this district (less than 4,000 votes), and Tim Kaine and Jim Webb won the district by more than 10 percent, in their respective races.
In most states, the exurbs are booming with new population growth, and yes, some of this is due to housing that is generally less expensive. But some of it is due to more conservative voters growing more and more uncomfortable with the changing demographis in their older suburb, so they move to the exurbs where they feel more comfortable.
In Virginia, in places like Loudon County, Prince William County, etc., the booming population over the last three or four election cycles has actually helped Democrats. But in most other states, it has actually helped Republicans. In 2004, Bush carried 97 of the 100 fastest growing counites in the country, mainly exurbs, and it was quite visible in the election results. Minnesota, for example, was much closer in 2004 than it should have been, and analysts point to the exurbs to the west, northwest and southwest of Minneapolis to help explain the strong vote for Bush there in 2004. And even in California, Kerry's margin was less than Gore's in 2000, due to the explosive growth in the exurbs of So., California, which are apparently chock FULL of Republican voters.
I assume that the exurbs in NOVA are a bit different since they are so close to D.C. And I think the high tech companies located in NOVA might be responsible for some of this as well. I have also read an article which stated that of all the southern states, Virginia was the number one choice in the south for African-American's who were moving out of large northeastern and midwestern states and into the south. But it would be interesting to hear what Mark Gersh thought on the subject.
Thanks for sharing this - it really was fascinating to read. And I look forward to the day when Stafford, Spotsylvania and Chesterfield counties start flipping (no pun intended) at the rate Prince William and Loundon have the last four years. Once that happens, you will finally see the "urban crescent" formed in Virginia, which political analysts have spoken about for two decades.