LA Times Poll Numbers

By: Lowell
Published On: 9/11/2007 7:21:48 PM

Hot off the presses, we've got new poll numbers on the presidential primaries.

Iowa
Hillary Clinton 28%
John Edwards 23%
Barack Obama 19%

Mitt Romney 28%
Rudy Giuliani 16%
Fred Thompson 16%

New Hampshire
Hillary Clinton 35%
John Edwards 16%
Barack Obama 16%

Mitt Romney 28%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
John McCain 12%
Fred Thompson 11%

South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 45%
Barack Obama 27%
John Edwards 7%

Fred Thompson 26%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
John McCain 15%
Mitt Romney 9%

Impressive numbers for Hillary Clinton; unimpressive for Rudy Giuliani.


Comments



More Good News for Clinton in Rasmussen Reports (Ken C. - 9/11/2007 7:46:45 PM)
Clinton 44% Giuliani 41%:  She also leads all other GOP challengers. Link below. 
http://www.rasmussen... 


More Good News for Clinton in Virginia Rasmussen Reports (Ken C. - 9/11/2007 7:51:17 PM)
Clinton 44% Giuliani 41%:  She also leads all other GOP challengers. Link below. 
http://www.rasmussen...
  Sorry for 2xpost,left out the most important part; this is a Virginia poll! Mark Warner crushes both Gilmore and Davis! 


I TOLD YOU SO (Gordie - 9/12/2007 7:09:06 AM)
Last month there was an article on this blog, with plenty of discussion, that Hillary would hurt the other candidates in VA. This poll says they will ride into office because of her.

Some people do not recognize a good candidate when they are sitting in their living room and chatting.

Come meet her on Sept. 23rd in Charlottesville.

https://contribute.h...

And when Mark announces his candidacy for the Senateand wins, and with Jim Webb, the rest of the Country will have their eyes on Virginia Politics for years to come..

Virginia will finally get back to the type of leader in this nation that I read about as a kid in the 40's/50's.

ps, that was in Northern Schools.



Only one remaining doubt about Hillary (humanfont - 9/11/2007 8:43:29 PM)
What happens if Bill gets caught returning to his old habbits weeks before the election?  Remember in 84 when they went after Ferraro's husband?  Expect the same when Hillary is our candidate.  It doesn't even matter if Bill does anything; the right wing noise machine is perfectly capable of making something up. 


So what? (k8 - 9/11/2007 9:46:39 PM)
If the GOP Senators could give Vitter of Louisiana a standing ovation when he returned to the Senate floor after he got caught in the Madam's little black book of clients, then anything Bill does is ok! 


You forget the old double standard (humanfont - 9/12/2007 2:21:18 AM)
Republicans get the benefit of the doubt, and the buried lead.  Vitters, Packwood, Arnold, etc will never generate the same kind of media frenzy as happens to democrats.  Remember how Webb's steamier writings suddenly became an issue a week before the election.  Compare with how long it took the Macacca story to really get rolling.


I also like the comment that (KainIIIC - 9/11/2007 8:45:08 PM)
Jonathan Singer of MyDD made about these polls:

"I do just want to add that the "likely" voter screen for the LA Times and Bloomberg is a bit loose. Doing some back of the napkin math, the likely voter model used here would include more than 870,000 Democratic caucus participants -- which is a bit more than the 122,000 or so that participated in the last Democratic caucus. While there may be more excitement this time around than there was in 2004, there isn't that much more excitement. So what does that mean? A lot of the folks the Times and Bloomberg are deeming "likely" voters or caucus goers are in fact unlikely to participate come January. Most in fact. As such, while these numbers might be good gauges of the general sentiments of these states, I'm not certain how good of gauges they are of the sentiments of those who are actually going to play a large role in selecting the next Democratic nominee."



What that caucus number means is that the IA portion is BS (WillieStark - 9/11/2007 10:14:35 PM)
No way does that number represent what is going on in Iowa.
That would track with the way polls are being done nationwide. The screening questions make the importance of name ID grossly disproportionate. That is the only reason HRC is doing well in the Iowa portion of the poll. The  NH poll is probably much more accurate in putting HRC ahead. Edwards is still the hard core front runner in Iowa though.


No wonder they don't want to count Florida's votes in the primary (relawson - 9/11/2007 8:47:33 PM)
We would support Edwards and give him a big push.  That would counter South Carolina - which votes on the same day if nothing changes.


According to Rasmussen (Lowell - 9/11/2007 8:53:41 PM)
Hillary leads in Florida with 43%, followed by Obama at 24% and Edwards at 11%.


I doubt that poll is accurate (relawson - 9/11/2007 9:21:04 PM)
My experience is anecdotal, but I see very little support for Hillary in Florida.

They must have polled Miami heavily.  Central Florida is where they need to be looking if they want an accurate picture.  The political spectrum of Florida runs straight down the state.  North Florida/rural Florida is conservative.  Central Florida is moderate, leaning to the right.  South Florida is moderate, leaning to the left.  South-East Florida (Miami and area) is left leaning.

Hillary has high negatives here.  Why on Earth would people in Florida support someone from New York over someone from the South?

You can believe the polls, or the feet on the ground.



I have no reason to disbelieve reputable polls (Lowell - 9/11/2007 9:26:29 PM)
And, as far as I know, all of them show Hillary leading in Florida.  Why?  Maybe because Democrats really like her?  Maybe because there are a lot of transplants from the north living in Florida?  Maybe because African Americans LOVE the Clintons?  At least those are my guesses.


See (Lowell - 9/11/2007 9:31:08 PM)
here, for instance:

...Sen. Hillary Clinton's commanding lead in most Florida polls. Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama by as much as 30 percentage points, according to Quinnipiac Polling Institute.

Clinton benefits partly because of former President Clinton's popularity in Florida. Bill Clinton is the only Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida since the 1970s. In 1991, Clinton's victory in a Florida straw poll was key to his ascent to the Democratic nomination in 1992, said Rhodes Cook, a political scholar who studies the presidential nomination process.



Then (relawson - 9/11/2007 10:12:29 PM)
You are in for a surprise in the primaries.  Not like the votes will count - because of bad people doing bad things ;-) - but mark my words.  Hillary won't win the Florida primary.


HRC may very well win the FL primary. (WillieStark - 9/11/2007 10:24:25 PM)
Although Edwards will give her a run for her money.

A few reasons why she will do well there.
1. An extremely strong pro Israel group of Dems in Fl. Not all people of Jewish descent by the way. Much more hawkish than the ordinary Democrat. I know because I am like minded on that issue in particular.
2. WJC, He remains popular there and always will, one cannot really underestimate his influence in Florida.
3. Lowell's comment on the transplants or "snowbirds" is right on the mark. A lot of people in FL are, in fact, from Yankeeville, and she does fairly well with the rich, upper class liberals. After, all she was on the cover of Fortune magazine and will do a great job of making the rich even richer, even if they are Democrats.



Yankeeville (relawson - 9/11/2007 10:28:11 PM)
"3. Lowell's comment on the transplants or "snowbirds" is right on the mark. A lot of people in FL are, in fact, from Yankeeville, "

Yeah, and they vote in Yankeeville also.



You All (Gordie - 9/12/2007 1:18:08 PM)
Can be thankful for Yankeeville. If not for those Yankees George Allen would still be a Senator and Presidential Candidate.

Just when will everyone get over it and recognize everyone as Americans.

Slowly this country is getting over racism, but when will talk ever stop separating Yankees and Southners.

The National Media is a big supporter of keeping this war of words and separating us as a nation. It sure makes for news to continue that fight and we let them get away with it. Imus was stopped with his racist remark. When will the Civil war end?