but I wouldn't write off Peggy Frank and Bill Thomas just yet.

Thanks.

but I've been keeping an eye on the staff members of all four campaigns. :-) The Republican machine in SWVA is looking a little rusty, and support from their party base looks MIA.

Let's hope that Tim Kaine is right when he says there are 15 competitive House seats.  As much as I love Brian Moran, I hope he's on the low end with his 3-6 estimate. :)

Agree on top 5

D win

9

close/tossup

21,34,51,83

R win

68 Manoli Loupassi

close/tossup

67 Marc Cadin

Considering his district...

Cadin has proven very adept at inserting his foot in his mouth...

Not sure I agree with that one.  His fundraising was virtually non-existant this summer, the district is very competitive, the other 3rd party candidate is a joker and this isn't exactly a great year to run as a Republican.  Maybe not as much here in Richmond as in Nova, but still.

According to NLS, Webb got 47% in the 68th, while Kaine and Warner both carried it in their governor runs.  I think the most interesting statistic of all is that 55% of the district voted against the gay marriage ban.  Certainly seems like the perfect place for a left-leaning independent to run, even with a slight Republican bent in a normal year.

One more thing, a friend who is a lobbyist told me about a disastrous appearance at one of Bill Howell's Republican dog and pony shows at Troutman or McGuire (can't remember which one) for Manoli.  The Times Dispatch even wrote about it in a story.  The same friend told me that the Waddell campaign is shopping a poll which shows her leading by 5 points, and by something like 7 after undecideds here a brief biography of both candidates.

I definitely notice a decrease in Republican enthusiasm around here and I think a lot of people who follow the CW might be surprised by the 68th's results this year, as they were in 2005 as well.

Rex Simmons (Hugo), Bill Day (Lingamfelter) or Marty Martinez (May).

These three are working their butts off and there has been much transition and anger in these districts.

Also, I didn't list all of Tim Kaine's 15 competitive seats, because I don't know what those are.

7 odd number Districts in the close races and 5 even number Districts.

In your predictions the are 4 odd number and 1 even number.

Mathematical logic says 2 more even numbers will win seats which add up to seven new Demo members in the house.

But since the prediction has more odd number winners, watch out for my bias pick of Connie Brennan.

But then aren't there 22 seats that have possiblities (Don't as me to name them) and with D's leading most of the polls nationally by 70 percent?, for pick ups, why can't Virginia have a 50 percent chance of pick ups or 11 seats or even all 12 that you have named.

Get Out the "D" Vote

I understand polling is looking very good there...Hugo is running scared...

We're really excited about Carlos Del Toro in the 88th, which includes Spotsylvania's Courtland District and the Elys Ford precinct in Chancellor.  Commander Del Toro (US Navy ret.) is one of the most aggressive campaigners you'll ever see.  Members of his staff have told me they've never seen a candidate work harder.  He's personally knocked on over 5,000 doors (and many more by volunteers and staff).  He's out-raised the incumbent and is one of the top fund-raising House challengers in the state.  This man is going to win!  Believe it.

If Commander Del Toro wins, which he most certainly should if there's any justice in the world, Democrats are going to take back the House of Delegates on November 6.  You heard it here first.  Ha. :)

With Spotsylvania having 10,300 registered voters out of the 88th's 47,918 total registered voters at the end of August, then Spotsylvania's 21% can really make a difference to Carlos' winning! 

In 2005 in the 88th, Stafford County (the largest number of District voters), increased Democratic turnout by 9% over 2003's turnout, an unheard of improvement for an unfunded Democratic candidate who had a hard-working but very small volunteer/campaign manager team.  Likewise, Spotsylvania increased Democratic turnout by 7.1% and Fauquier by 6.4%.

And with the popular Senator Edd Houck a Spotsylvania resident, a win for Carlos can be had!

I am not at liberty to disclose the details of the poll done at the end of June (I've seen them), but there are four conclusions that they suggest: 

1.  the 59th is a District that will go Democratic if there is an energetic campaign (Tim Kaine and Mark Warner both carried it);

2.  Watkins Abbitt, after 22 years in office, does not have a majority at this point in the race;

3.  Connie Brennan is not well known yet; and

4.  Even not being known, Connie is within striking distance.

I can tell you that the campaign is certainly energetic.  They have been blowing away their targets for phone calls made, and as of the end of June, she had out-raised Watkins Abbitt.  The mail campaign started this week, and I'm betting that when the next poll is done, it will show the race neck and neck.

is the sheriffs race in Nelson County, David Brooks a Democrat looks like he will over whelm his challenger who is a Republican running as an Independant. Brooks is well liked and it looks promising for him to turn out a large vote in Nelson. His campaign has signed up over 50 new voters, who have never voted before. Over Half of those are family and close friends. So if they go to the polls it is pretty certain how they will vote. At this point he looks like he will carry Nelson with 75 percent of the Vote. If he can produce a high voter turn out and we can get allot of his turn out, Connie could get 65 percent in Nelson, which it has been talked about on this blog that if she can get that amount, she just might over ride the Appos vote, which the word is Watkins is loosing support.

Connie is riding the rural areas and it looks promising with her door to door Rural campaigning. She and I did the Schuyler area and everyone was positive.

The campaign recognition mailers are hitting the homes and look excellant. This is a good organized campaign and I think my bias is well founded.

Also, Rex Simmons has a good chance of defeating Tim Hugo in the 40th.  Rex is hurting for money at this point, but has three things working for him:  Hugo has been a very ineffective delegate, with 96 out of 100 Republican and Democratic delegates in 2007 having a greater percentage of their bills passed; he is tainted by association with the Bud Shuster congressional scandal; and his position on guns goes far beyond a reasonable defense of the 2nd Amendment.  He is beatable, but Rex needs to chrank it up and his supporters need to come through with financial support. 

By saying that Rex "needs to crank it up", I didn't mean that he needs to work harder in his campaign.  No one is working harder than Rex.  What I meant was that Rex could probably benefit by taking the gloves off completely in dealing with Hugo.  Rex has tried to run a positive campaign, but Hugo has tons of negatives and Rex should not shy away from focusing laser-like on those negatives.

each of those districts is?

51st & 52nd - Prince William County
34th - Fairfax County
21st & 83rd - Virginia Beach
9th - Floyd/Franklin/Pittsylvania Counties
33rd - Clarke/Loudon Counties
96th (Troy Farlow is running here, not the 39th) - James City County, York County & Newport News
59th - Albemarle/Appomatox/Buckingham/Cumberland/Fluvanna/Nelson/Prince Edward Counties
88th - Fauquier/Spotsylvania/Stafford Counties
14th - Henry County, Pittsylvania County & Danville
86th - Fairfax/Loudon Counties

I appreciate it.

Only the area below I-64 is in the 59th Distict.

Albemarle, only the area below I-64 is in the 59th District.

I don't live anywhere near Marty Martinez's district but just having met him a couple of times and talking to him, I'm vey impressed by the man.  Definitely don't count him out.

I think Troy Farlow has a great shot at winning the open seat in the 97th House district.