If Chap Petersen beats Jeannemarie Devolites Davis this November, Tom Davis might finally realize he has no constituency left to even keep his House seat, let alone try for the Senate.

Also, if John Warner does run for re-election, couldn't Mark Warner, formally or otherwise, begin his gubernatorial campaign and let the Dem who should have the Presidential nomination sewn up by April at the latest know he's willing to be a running mate?

It's going to be interesting.  I guess we'll all be waiting on pins and needles to hear Warner's decision.  Who knows -- maybe he'll run again, if he's making such a big deal about the announcement.

If John Warner does announce he'll run again, and next month starts voting against Bush the way he's started talking against Bush, maybe Gilmore or someone will challenge him in a GOP primary from the right.  That battle could permit Dems to succeed with a less than stellar candidate.  Mark Warner could keep his semi-pledge not to run against John Warner, freeing him up to run for Governor and keep his Vice Presidential nominee hopes alive at the same time.

who's the next Fairfax BOS Chair? Sharon Bulova or (gag)Linda Smyth?

If Dems win a majority in the House, does Moran stick around as Majority Leader or, eventually, Speaker? Or who takes his seat in the HoD? Or Creigh's in the Senate?

I'm not nearly as plugged in to the Democratic underground as many on this site, but there are more moving parts than this. Doug Denneny has already declared for the 11th and is raising money on ActBlue for his candidacy -- and I think that goes forward regardless of what former Rep. Byrne does. I think she would be the favorite if she decides to run for Congress again, but it looks to me like there will be some sort of primary in Va-11.

And this is a nitpick/pet peeve of mine, but I really dislike the hint of royalism of Brian Moran "succeeding" his brother in Congress. I'm not trying to pick on you, but the whole family/hereditary dynastical politics in America really irks me. Looking at the Murkowskis in Alaska, the Blunts in Missouri, the Romneys, the Clintons, the Rockefellers, the Kennedys, and oh, yeah, the Bushes, etc., etc., I would hope Brian Moran would not just be 'ceded' a Congressional seat.

But tomorrow will definitely tell us a lot about what '08 in Va is going to look like. 

is one of the most popular, well-liked and well-respected Democrats in Virginia. He will far exceed Brian, in terms of his success in politics, when all is said and done.

By the way, two most popular Democrats of all time? FDR & RFK. They belong on that list of yours.

Al Gore?.... followed his father in politics.

Hillary Clinton? Most popular pol in NY right now, more than Schumer or Spitzer, and crushing Giuliani head-to-head.

Ted Kennedy? One of the most accomplished Senators of all-time. He took his case to the people as a presidential candidate and they said "no." How's that "royalist"?

I meant to say he will far exceed 'Jim'.

I no doubt erred grouping Brian and his brother (my Congressman) with that dubious group -- it was a pretty scatter-brained post that I really should not have posted (not on James' diary, anyway), but I'm in an especially anti-establishment, anti-horse-race-politics mood these days.

I have nothing against Brian Moran, and don't doubt that he is well respected and may well be a great public servant, perhaps succeeding his brother in Congress. 

Regardless, I generally stand by my point, however intemperate or misplaced it was. While I can't argue your points with respect to FDR and JFK, I actually think the other three on your list speak to the general 'royalism' I was bemoaning -- the way family and incumbency lead to entrenchment and establishmentarianism. I respect TK, but think Mass. would be better served by a new face (I'm for 2-term limits for Senators). Likewise I respect Hillary's intellect and accomplishments, but I'm very much against a Clinton redux.

Anyway, enough rambling. Sorry for the initial silly post, tarring Brian, attacking the diary premise, etc. The state Dems I'm 100% behind at this point, and am excited for our prospects in VA 10 and 11. Shoulda left it at that.

I'm kinda a newbie to local politics myself, but a Byrne vs. Connolly primary for VA-11 could be very ugly.  Byrne was a big early name to join the Webb rebels last year.  There's still bad blood between the Webb team and the regular Dems who stuck with the eventual loser.  I'm pretty sure those sore losers would back Connolly, while Webb and his less-than-gracious winners would go for Byrne.  The good news is that the only Republican I think who might have the name recognition, money, and moderate-seeming profile to seriously challenge a weakened Dem nominee would be Jeannemarie Devolites Davis.  That's another reason why it's imperative to elect Chap Petersen this November.

then the tired old same old same old?

There is no way in hell that Jean-Marie will win in the 11th. 

Sorry, but I don't know what you're talking about.  Webb and Miller, as well as their respective supporters, were overwhelmingly gracious to one another, and united in glee at the unseating of Senator Duh (R-Deer Head).

Your attempted perpetuation of this illusive division is unnecessary and just plain stupid.

Doug, I'm sure you know more than I about the Webb-Miller race and fallout.  I've heard some things, though, and I've read some stuff that showed some alignment between Webb and Byrne on one hand and Miller and Connolly on the other.  Most of what I read came from Lowell and his commenters over at RK, especially during this year's primaries and particularly the anti-Connolly stuff that was mostly used against Smyth-Hall (Hall-Smyth?).  And there's still talk about that damn cartoon in all the fallout of the ODBA vs. Stanley conflict.  Control of the FCDC and a U.S. House seat are big things, and it would be more surprising if there weren't internal conflict.  I'd love to believe that graciousness could co-exist with all this, but I've read and heard too much ugliness to expect it.  Ben's a Byrne supporter and a Connolly detractor (to say the least).  If Byrne and Connolly square off, this site will be ground zero for politics at its least gracious (no offense, Ben, I think the blogosphere needs your unique brand).

I forgot which site I was on.  Maybe as Ben re-tools his site, I can get him to ban me in the early morning hours even if I register with an e-mail address :)

I hope you all are gracious in the face of my stupidity.

Democratic primaries?  And if there are Democratic primaries, are you suggesting that they shouldn't be rough and tumble or that somehow peoples' feelings not get hurt?  If you've got a workable plan for this arrangement, I'd love to see it.  Personally, I think primaries are important parts of our Democracy.  I also believe, from my readings in American history, that politics has always been rough, with lots of hard feelings and even duels!  If you want tiddlywinks, I don't believe that the political arena -- let alone the political blogosphere! - is necessarily the place you want to be hanging out.

FYI, the only time I think of Harris Miller is when someone else brings him up in the context of how Webb supporters supposedly are perpetuating divisions in the party.  Besides that, I'm focused on winning back the State Senate and possibly even the House of Delegates this year, on promoting Judy Feder for Congress, on writing my book about the netroots, etc.

Now that I got the other part of my chest---the alignments that formed in Webb-Miller would NOT be the same.  They're totally different races and not very comparable.  The Presidential race in 2004 and the race in 2008 have completely scrambled allegiances.  The idea that these factions in the Democratic Party are monolithic and uncracking is quite inaccurate.

That said, I can't agree with you any more regarding Chap! needing to win.  However, even if JMDD pulled it out and then tried to run for Congress....please!  She wouldn't come close to either Dem in a 2008 cycle.

to see if the press leaks the contents (of the speech) beforehand...or to listen to the 2pm announcement.

P.S. Good article Mr. Martin.

Should Hillary win the primary, I think Mark's chances of being considered for VP grow exponentially.  Two words:  Terry MacAuliffe.  Big Hil and Bill fundraiser/supporter.  Wasn't he a former roomate of Mark's in college?

As for the 11th CD, yeah, that's going to be a primary to watch.  Doug Denenny, a very promising newcomer, is already committed regardless of who else gets into it.  Andy Hurst is probably not interested in a second run, espcially if Tom Davis is out of the race.  And Leslie and Gerry have been warily eyeing that seat.  And, yes, they're respective supporters do still harbor resentments.

Isn't it an old Chinese curse:  "May you live in interesting times" :)

McAuliffe is a former classmate, not roomate of Mark's. Still, he's done events in NoVa for Mark.  There's a connection.  Question is whether Mark wants to be a VP. 

They worked together at the DNC.  Terry was Mark's boss in the fundraising department.

But, I believe, they also were classmates - not roomates, that was a misstatement. My aging memory could be failing me but I thought I once heard both Mark and Terry make mention in speeches, during a fundraiser, of being classmate. 

I do know they have a friendly relationship and McAuliffe has come into Virginia to do events at Mark's behest.

And I think VaDem is right.  If Mark has an interest in the Senate (and I hope he does), he has to announce, not wait on the possibility of a VP offer.  I was just saying don't write off the possibility that Mark will be considered.

Of course, Mark may not even be interested in the VP spot.  Historically, VPs have not faired so well if they've had presidential aspirations.  And Mark may re-examine that ambition at the right time.

Where did Mark go to school?
Terry McAuliffe went to the same school Ed Gillespie went to school believe it or not.

He also went to George Washington undergrad, and Rockville High School in Connecticut.

I guess thats a rumor then, unless they went to law school together. McAuliffe went to Catholic in the District for undergrad.

If MRW waits for Hillary to win a primary, it's kinda late by then to make a decision known about the Senate seat.  All I'l sayin' is he can wait and take his chances, but he will likely lose the Senate opportunity.  There are so many factors going into the VP pick that its a real gamble for him.  Of course, unless that's what he wants.