Rail to Dulles Going Down?

By: Lowell
Published On: 8/29/2007 6:44:01 AM

After all the sound and fury, will Metro to Dulles amount to nothing?  Will the entire project go down the tubes, so to speak?  According to today's Washington Post, that certainly could be the case. 

Over budget and behind schedule, rail to Dulles International Airport is in trouble.

Planned for more than 40 years, the 23-mile Metro extension from Falls Church to Loudoun County is among the region's highest transportation priorities...Yet the most critical component to the project's success -- nearly $1 billion in federal funding -- remains in doubt. And so does the fate of the rail line itself.

Of course, politics being what it is, the blame game has already begun.  Thus, Tom Davis says "The only one who has delayed this project is the governor."  Other people "place the blame for cost escalation squarely at the feet of the project's no-bid contract."  Virginia's Secretary of Transportation, Pierce Homer, says that "most of the delays under Virginia's watch resulted from allowing interest groups to have a say."  Some blame tunnel advocates.  Gerry Connolly says "We had an obligation to look thoroughly at the tunnel option."  And on and on it goes.  Where it stops is the question.  At this point, nobody knows.


Comments



A world class city? (Shenandoah Democrat - 8/29/2007 8:31:33 AM)
Without rail to Dulles, not only will there be increased gridlock, but how can we possibly consider the DC area a world class city with no rail to the major airport? It's just beyond belief that while everyone seems to be a stakeholder in this project with the power to delay, no one has the power to make it HAPPEN. From the beginning there should have been a strong agency and even one individual with substantial power to make this project go. Also, rail to Metro seems like an entirely Virginia undertaking. Yet it benefits the entire area and indeed anyone coming into the area through Dulles. In other words it benefits millions of American and international visitors. The Governor must call a transportation summit, and create a Dulles Rail Czar with power to make this project happen. Further, completion of the entire project, rail to Dulles, not Reston, should be the objective. It may be necessary to void the gilded contract with Bechtel and re-bid the contract. If this requires new legislation, or even an act of Congress, so be it. But ACTION now is necessary to make this desperately needed project happen, but it seems like everyone right now is pointing at somebody else waiting for the project to sink from it's own weight.


I agree with you (jiacinto - 8/29/2007 11:05:44 PM)
This project cannot be allowed to fail.


Wolf (Just Saying - 8/29/2007 10:05:12 AM)
Deserves major blame for this, along with Davis. It's easy to blame the Tunnel supporters now for having delayed the process in order to have a discussion. But that completely ignores the fact that the discussion could have been had a year earlier had Davis and Wolf not threatened the Governor with loss of federal funds.

The problem with the Dulles Rail project is that the special interests have been driving the process the whole time. Frank Wolf, in particular has a close relationship with Bechtel and Washington Group International(they've donated to his campaign). how that fact goes unreported, is beyond me.



Wolf wouldn't even show up to the TysonsTunnel rally (Lowell - 8/29/2007 10:07:46 AM)
last winter.  Tom Davis was there, Jim Moran was there, pretty much everybody was there, but no Frank Wolf.  Supposedly, he was just too upset about seeing his life's work go down the drain.  Well, guess what Congressman:  your "life's work" IS about to go down the drain, and it's in part thanks to YOU!


How can anyone really think Bush would allow this money (Used2Bneutral - 8/29/2007 10:07:58 AM)
Fairfax County as a voting block is becoming more and more Democrat.... it has been the bane of the Virginia Republican party which has been one of the main pillars of their national political strategies.... Well, since Mark Warner started the big drift away from the far right, and then Tim Kaine, and then Jim Webb, etc. etc.  How can anyone seriously think that this screwed up administration would allow BILLIONS of federal dollars that could go to another "Loyal" state reward the traitors that have given them such great pain, no matter if it is the right and proper thing to do for even their own families that live in Virginia.....  I never could see Tom Davis or especially Frank Wolf now having the clout or even the leverage to make this happen..... Davis has more influence over getting big federal dollars for DC than he does for his own district.... The Bush Administration will use DOT to kill this project because they have probably written off Northern Virginia... they will distort the actual facts to make the percieved facts appear to not meet the required criteria.... and then try to blame it on the Democrats in Congress..... I will make a bet that this project goes into deep freeze for another 24 to 36 months until a new administration takes a different approach......


I'm still not convinced (Eric - 8/29/2007 10:42:36 AM)
that the Rail to Dulles (or, more accurately right now, to Reston) is the Holy Grail that everyone thinks it is.

Don't get me wrong, I like trains.  I like the idea of commuter trains a lot.  However, I don't believe that a line run out to Dulles and beyond is going to significantly improve the traffic problems we face today.  Just look at I66 outside the beltway during rush hour - has the Orange line fixed the gridlock there?  Hardly.  Yes, I'll be the first to admit that things would be worse without the Orange line, but I think people who believe a Dulles line would magically solve the Fairfax/Loudoun traffic problems are being way too optimistic.

Plus, what about real world commuter patterns?  Are that many people commuting from DC to Tysons?  Or the reverse?  Yes, this line would pick up people along the dulles/greenway corridor who commute to DC and would certainly take some cars off the road. 

Again, I'm not against the idea of Rail To Dulles, I just don't believe that this project is the make-or-break deal for the NOVA area.  Or that it is THE solution that will save us from gridlock and a horrible transportation situation.

So, with that in mind, if this would be a low cost project that could be done quickly I'd be all for it.  Or, if it would beyond any doubt provide huge benefits I'd be all for it.  But it's not either.  Every time someone does an analysis the cost and time increase and I have yet to see a report/projection that says this project would absolutely save NOVA (hell, even just Tysons) from gridlock.



Try going to Tysons in the morning... (ericy - 8/29/2007 10:56:08 AM)

Gazillions of people trying to get in.  I would also argue however that not all Metro trips would end in DC.  Some would, but some folks might be working in Rosslyn, Ballston or Clarendon.  Or there could be people living in one of those locations who work in Tysons.

I don't expect that anything will 'fix' the problems completely.  The fundamental problems have to do with people living too far from their places of work.  Cheap gas, freeways, and zoning laws that segregate residential and commercial use of land have all combined to get us to a point where people think they need to commute so far.  Fixing this problem will take decades however, and so far I haven't seen any indication that people even see this as a problem that needs to be fixed.  Everyone wants more roads/transit/etc, to make their long commutes more bearable.  Still, you will never completely eliminate the need for transit.

One of the problems with Tysons is that it is mainly commercial, and there isn't much residential.  This turns it into a commuter nightmare with people trying to get in and out.  I am one of the few that actually lives in Tysons - getting *out* of Tysons in the morning is generally easy - all the traffic is going the other way.  But if you forget something at home, you are screwed :-(.

Obviously Metro to Dulles won't do much to help with the I-66 or I-95 corridors.  No one single project is going to help with all 3 or any of the other problem areas.



The problem and the solution (Lowell - 8/29/2007 11:25:26 AM)
"One of the problems with Tysons is that it is mainly commercial, and there isn't much residential.  This turns it into a commuter nightmare with people trying to get in and out."

Two words:  smart growth.
Three more words: mixed use development.

More important than Metro to Dulles for Tysons to become a livable, walkable, healthy community would be the aforementioned.  And there's no sense doing Metro to Dulles if it's going to be a no-bid boondoggle for Bechtel and if it's not going to be done right.



Absolutely... (ericy - 8/29/2007 4:33:38 PM)

I attended one of the Fairfax County Tysons Corner Land Use Committee open meetings to see what they were up to:

http://www.fairfaxco...

They certainly talked a good talk about smart growth - I think the point of the meeting was to see whether the general public seemed to get it or not.

What makes it easier is that we have the Ballston corridor right nearby, and it is easy for people to see how smart growth is supposed to work.  Thus it isn't quite as hard of a sell as it would have been were there no good examples in the area.

The problem is how do you retrofit it into an area that has previously allowed laissez-faire development.  It sounds like the major incentive that the county can offer is even higher development density provided that the development follows a smart-growth design.

Regarding transit in Tysons, there are lots of mixed feelings for people who live here.  Virtually everyone wants Metro through Tysons - that part isn't controversial.  Some folks are afraid that if the overhead rail thing goes down in flames that we will get nothing except more roads or something useless like a Metro that bypasses Tysons entirely.  Or BRT - I know some people here like the idea, but to me it is designed to fail - do something cheap that doesn't really work, and then the road builders will come out and say "See, I told you so".



Agreed. (Eric - 8/29/2007 12:32:21 PM)
I wasn't trying to say there would be no benefit from this extension - I hope it didn't come out that way.  However, given the cost I think we need to take a hard look at how the entire system will really benefit and we need to be open to possible alternatives.

There are tons of people traveling to and through Tysons - but how many are coming from non-mass transit areas and/or going to non-mass transit areas?  A good mass transit system will only work if the points of origin and destination are both served by the mass transit - and I think you'll find the model for the vast majority of Tysons commuters is that they live in suburban areas not well served (or well used) by mass transit.  The train would likely clean up a portion of the pass through traffic - but how much is the critical question in terms of improving the Tysons corridor traffic situation.

What it really comes down to is a good cost/benefit analysis based on current (and expected to escalate) costs and hard core benefit analysis.  The FTA report that came out just last month even indicated that they used old software/analysis to determine that the project would be a benefit.



Blame Democracy (Galenbrux - 8/29/2007 11:52:33 AM)
I blame excessive Democratic action for the delays and incompetence involved. Of course, when excessive Democracy dooms a worthy public project, you must charge the failure to the lack of local political leadership.

It seems that everyone was allowed to get in their two cents worth into this essential transportation project. I'm not only talking about the opponents of the rail to Dulles, which included the folks who support Bus Rapid Transit. I also blame the local politicians who allowed the Johnny-come-lately "tunnel through Tysons" folks to jam up and delay the entire project.

At a time when I thought the local and state bureaucrats and elected officials had come together and supported an above ground system through Tysons, all of a sudden the tunnelers started rabble rousing. They should have been ignored instead of listened to. If I had been a dictator and running the show, I certainly would have suppressed their ridiculous and costly proposals. [I suspect that the tunnel supporters were really the original opponents of rail operating incognito.]

Let me note a very important observation that a lot of folks including me hold to be a virtual truth: the rail system project to Dulles Airport, with all the incidental business services, construction, and jobs that come with it, could mean that Northern Virginia will be recession proof for the next twenty or thirty years.

Not only will Northern Virginia benefit from a damn good rail related economy, but the rest of the state will also benefit. I would suspect that substantial and sustained revenues will flow to the state treasury during the entire period. We're talking about prosperity for all Virginians.

To be serious, I place the blame for this fiasco on Tim Kaine. The Governor should have exercised more direct control and management. If the rail to Dulles fails, he will be chief recipient of criticism.

But, it may be that the Slow Growth folks that Kaine has inside his administration might have induced the Governor to act indifferently to the project. After all, Slow Growth is all about reducing additional residential development that would inevitably go along with a rail system to Loudoun County.



"Slow Growth" vs. "Smart Growth" (Lowell - 8/29/2007 11:55:07 AM)
I am a strong proponent of "Smart Growth," not whatever "Slow Growth" is.  As a "Smart Growth" person, I am a huge fan of rail, trolley, and development of livable mixed-use communities.  Also, as a believer in "sunshine" in government, I am in principle against secretive, no-bid contracts to well-heeled companies like Bechtel.  Especially when Bechtel is best known for the Big Dig fiasco in Boston.  So yeah, build Metro to Dulles, but DO IT RIGHT dammit!


Actually (Just Saying - 8/29/2007 12:10:21 PM)
Not everyone was able to get in their two-cents, and that was part of the problem. the special interests and the lobbyists were driving this from the beginning.

bechtel, coupled with Wolf and Davis, basically blackmailed Gov. Kaine into stopping the debate over the tunnel by threatening the loss of federal funds, something that now appears to have been a mistake on their part.

The "tunnel through Tysons" folks only organized and created the debate a year later becuase they were being bullied by the special interests.

The only reason that the Tysons Tunnel idea was killed is that Frank Wolf and Tom Davis told Gov Kaine that any delay in the project would jeopardize federal finds. More than a year later, and after a long debate, the federal funding finally appears to be in jeopardy (maybe). But all of that could have been avoided had Davis and Wolf not pushed to end the public debate.

Davis and Wolf are responsible for this, more leadership was required from them, and as usual their failure to lead and loyalty to special interests have cost taxpayers.

And where the hell is Frank Wolf on this? The whole project is in jeopardy and the man hasn't uttered a word. He's out to lunch.



Yeah, democracy sucks (Eric - 8/29/2007 12:12:10 PM)
I hate it when people get involved in projects that will effect them.  If we only had a single unaccountable czar to decide everything it would be the best project ever!

Oh, and in addition to saving the entire Virginia economy for the next 30 years you forgot to mention that the Metro to Dulles project would solve world hunger and bring about everlasting world peace.

Get real.



I agree with you (jiacinto - 8/29/2007 11:04:57 PM)
It would be a pure shame if this project dies. It's everyone's fault here. This is a common sense idea. It is a shame that division may have killed it.


Failure of leadership (TheGreenMiles - 8/29/2007 1:04:26 PM)
It would be a disgrace if this project was allowed to die.  The Dulles-Tysons region is going to grow whether Metro goes there or not.  The question is, will they rely on mostly their cars or mostly on Metro for their commutes?  If Dulles rail dies, will the next option be to expand Maryland's Intercounty Connector into a full-blown Outer Beltway?


I agree with you (jiacinto - 8/29/2007 10:50:47 PM)
If this project dies the failure will be catastrophic.


The real failure of leadership (novamiddleman - 8/29/2007 1:31:59 PM)
Allowing a 5.5 BILLION dollar project to continue for so long.

I challenge anyone to say this is money well spent

Once again the enviromental impact study says there will be NO EFFECT on traffic relief for the region



What does that mean? (TheGreenMiles - 8/29/2007 2:12:22 PM)
Does "no traffic relief" mean no one will ride Metro?  Or does it mean road usage will be maintained at current levels for a generation while 25,000 commuters who would've driven take Metro instead?  You're saying you'd rather have those 25,000 people on the road every day?


Well (jiacinto - 8/29/2007 10:48:44 PM)
I am hoping that somehow this project is being saved. If it falls apart there will never be rail to Dulles.


Thank you FHA staff! (tx2vadem - 8/29/2007 11:43:54 PM)
Thank you for doing your job and dutifully protecting tax payer money!